您的当前位置:首页 > 时讯 > The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it 正文
时间:2025-06-16 11:41:32 来源:网络整理 编辑:时讯
Title:"TIA-anOTCstory"Author:TaranSabharwal,founderofthecryptocurrencyover-the-countertradingplatfor
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
9连板泰禾智能:阳光新能源确认不存在未来12个月内改变公司主营业务进而导致公司主营业务发生根本变化的计划2025-06-16 12:08
江南高纤(600527.SH):已累计回购0.77%股份2025-06-16 11:25
股票赎回时间2025-06-16 10:53
BTC交易所福利多的三大排名2025-06-16 10:37
比特币价格接近1公斤黄金价值2025-06-16 10:26
st股票涨幅2025-06-16 10:16
什么是gec币 什么叫gec币2025-06-16 09:59
虚拟货币交易所芝麻交易所app最新下载-芝麻交易所DEX交易v6.8.9官网下载2025-06-16 09:57
英国央行或年内再降息两次应对经济压力2025-06-16 09:52
币能怎么玩2025-06-16 09:43
Kaito:未来几天将在sKAITO/YT部分引入重要机制2025-06-16 12:07
悦康药业:子公司YKYY15注射液获NMPA临床试验批准2025-06-16 11:39
加密货币今日行情走势2025-06-16 11:35
OKX|欧意网页版/欧意安卓下载,一站式数字货币交易平台体验2025-06-16 11:18
最新eth行情分析-eth 行情2025-06-16 11:11
抄虚拟币电脑软件-抄虚拟币电脑软件叫什么2025-06-16 11:00
特朗普将对非美国制造的手机征收25%关税2025-06-16 10:45
财务报表金额间有哪些不会相互抵消的情况?2025-06-16 10:24
货币交易平台app下载_比特币交易所排行榜2025-06-16 09:57
虚拟币的交易平台2025-06-16 09:25